I watched an interview today featuring Barbara Corcoran. The topic? The ever dramatic housing market. 2010 has come and gone (well almost) and all eyes are now on that all important spring of 2011 market. We normally see things begin to heat up around late February to mid March. I have to say that Barbara’s interview was not too encouraging. One thing I do want to quickly add though is that you must remember that all markets are different. Just because something is happening in California, or Texas, or Florida, doesn’t necessarily mean we have the same symptoms here.
Here (below) are some of the Highlights of Barbara’s interview. She was asked if the troubling trend would continue into 2011.
The quick answer is that if all things remain the same (lack of jobs, banks unwillingness to lend) they perdict a 7-10% drop yet again this year. Barbara comments that due to the 1st time homebuyer credit in place in early 2010, the bulk of the loss came in the 2nd half of 2010.
She comments further that three things affect the housing market right now.
1) The Job Market – people are still insecure. We needs job, jobs, jobs.
2) The 4.5 % low interest rate is great; but folks can’t qualify for a loan. Did you know that only 1 in 30 get a “yes” from the bank.
3) Look at my Rockland Market Reports. Historically, when there is a 6 month (or more) supply of inventory, that makes prices fall.
The news is not grim in all areas of the country. The key is jobs. There are markets that are thriving with homes even increasing in value, namely San Fransisco, Austin, Portland Maine and others. Your question, of course, would be “but what about the Rockland County Housing Market Inventory, and how are we faring?”
Barbara’s advice (and mine would be the same) is that if you don’t have to sell…sit tight and wait for the value to come back, eventually the market will turn around. The question is when. Many experts feel we are in for at least a 3-5 year ride. Sadly she ends her interview on what I consider a low note . . . but most likely a truthful one. If there is not a directive from The Whitehouse mandating that banks work with homeowners and give them a break, there is no chance of recovery in 2011. Remember that only 1 in 30 mortgage applicants get a “yes” from the lender.
Please check back often and look at the Rockland Market Reports. They will be updated again in January. Happy (????) New Year Everyone. Yes, Happy New Year, this is America and here we always have something to be thankful about. Call me Pollyanna if you like, but I have been and hope to always be an optimist.